New blow to Iran: geopolitics and oil

On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a massive strike on Iran's infrastructure, stating the goal was to prevent the development of a nuclear bomb. According to official sources, the position of Washington and Tel Aviv remains unchanged, yet some analysts note that the nuclear program argument is unlikely to be the main motive.

Recently, Oman's foreign minister Badr Albusaidi, after a round of negotiations, stated that a breakthrough had been achieved: "If the ultimate goal is to permanently guarantee that Iran will not have a nuclear bomb, then we have solved this problem." According to Ormuz, Iran was ready to open all its nuclear facilities for international monitoring, but strikes followed several hours later.

According to NEWS.BY, the rhetoric about a nuclear threat has turned into a ritual smoke screen, seemingly diverting attention from deeper goals—control over global hydrocarbon flows and the consolidation of U.S. economic hegemony. Washington's new foreign policy line, conditionally named "Donro," prioritizes access to cheap energy resources; Venezuela serves as an example, where after Maduro's removal, the U.S. gained access to large reserves of heavy oil.

Now Iran, possessing not only vast resources but also control over the Strait of Hormuz, in the opinion of analysts, has become the main opponent of the American strategy of influencing oil prices. The lack of cheap Iranian oil for China, experts suggest, could slow down the country's economic development.

The Russian Federation plays a key role in this global game as the largest independent oil giant and strategic partner of China. It appears that the active conflict in the Western Mediterranean will not last more than 5–7 days, after which a sharp rise in oil prices is expected, hitting importers.

As sources note, today's strikes against Iran are not a war for a nuclear-free Middle East, but a struggle for control over energy prices in the coming decades.

Context

In 2015, Iran signed the Paris Agreement (P5+1), which limited its nuclear weapons strategy in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. In recent years, tensions have continued in the region: Minute Kharran, opposition, calls for international oversight, and frequent diplomatic initiatives remain in the focus of global media attention.