Lithuania assessed 2025 threats

In 2025, the Lithuanian State Security Agency released its tenth public threat assessment, identifying Russia as the most complex and primary threat to the country and the Baltic region. The report notes that, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, Moscow is conducting large-scale military reforms and increasing its defense capabilities, and in the event of a lull in Donbas, resources could be quickly redeployed to NATO's borders.

In the section dedicated to Belarus, Lithuanian analysts stated that Minsk is viewed not as a partner but as a key element of Russia's strategy. The report emphasizes Belarus's growing integration into Russia's foreign policy, the increase in repression and control following the 2025 elections, and asserts that Belarusian territory and airspace are being used for attacks on Ukraine.

The level of torture and interference in the lives of Belarusians abroad, as well as suspicions of intensified surveillance and pressure on foreigners entering the country, were also included in the assessment. Lithuanian experts noted that the use of Russian and Chinese cyber espionage and hybrid attacks increases the risks of 'accidental war' and provocations near NATO borders.

Simultaneously, the Lithuanian assessment highlighted the presence of the 'Kaliningrad factor,' which, analysts believe, could significantly hinder NATO's force deployment, as well as 'nuclear blackmail,' where Russia deliberately keeps amendments to its nuclear doctrine ambiguous. Additionally, China is providing Moscow with 'dual-use' technologies, circumventing sanctions, while cyber espionage and recruitment of saboteurs are intensifying via Telegram.

In conclusion, Lithuanian intelligence agencies assert that a direct, full-scale conflict with NATO is not expected in the near term, but subtle provocations and hybrid attacks remain the main threat for 2025. Belarus's role in this context is emphasized as a potential source of risk.

Context

The report presents the Lithuanian agency's tenth annual assessment of national threats.